📖 ContentsChapter 14
Genetics · Chapter 14

Human Inheritance, Genetic Testing and Counseling

Everything in this book comes together when a family sits down with a clinician and asks what a diagnosis means for them, their children and their relatives. Human genetics applies Mendel, Hardy and Weinberg, Bayes and the molecular biology of mutation to real decisions: whether to test, how to read a result, how to estimate a risk and how to share it. This chapter covers the major patterns of single gene disease, the genetics of common complex disease, the tests now available from before conception to adulthood, the arithmetic of genetic counseling and the ethical questions that come with knowing more about our genomes.

By the end of this chapter you can

  • Recognize autosomal dominant, autosomal recessive, X linked and mitochondrial disorders and explain penetrance, expressivity, anticipation and imprinting.
  • Use the Hardy Weinberg equation to estimate carrier frequencies from disease incidence.
  • Explain the liability threshold model, heritability, twin concordance and the patterns of recurrence risk for multifactorial traits.
  • Interpret genome wide association studies, odds ratios and polygenic risk scores.
  • Compare diagnostic, predictive, carrier, prenatal and newborn testing, and calculate sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value.
  • Calculate recurrence and carrier risks, including conditional (Bayesian) risk, for counseling problems.
  • Discuss informed consent, privacy, genetic discrimination, testing of minors, secondary findings and germline editing.

Section 1Single gene disorders in humans

How human inheritance is studied

Human geneticists cannot arrange crosses, so they work backward from families. A pedigree records relationships and phenotypes across generations, and the inheritance pattern is inferred from who is affected. The person through whom a family comes to attention is the proband; the person seeking advice is the consultand. Single gene (Mendelian) disorders are individually rare, but there are thousands of them, and together they affect roughly 1 percent of people. Catalogs of human genes and phenotypes now list more than 7,000 Mendelian conditions with a known molecular basis.

Autosomal dominant disorders

In autosomal dominant (AD) inheritance, one copy of the variant allele is enough to cause disease. The pedigree shows affected individuals in every generation (vertical transmission), males and females affected about equally, and male to male transmission, which rules out X linkage. Each child of an affected heterozygote has a 1/2 chance of inheriting the variant. Most affected people are heterozygous; homozygotes, when they occur, are often more severely affected.

Dominant disorders arise by several molecular mechanisms. Some involve haploinsufficiency, in which half the normal protein is not enough (familial hypercholesterolemia from LDLR variants, with half the normal LDL receptors). Some involve a dominant negative effect, in which an abnormal protein disrupts the normal one, as in Marfan syndrome (FBN1, fibrillin 1) and osteogenesis imperfecta (collagen type I). Others are gain of function, as in achondroplasia, where a specific FGFR3 variant (Gly380Arg) makes a growth plate receptor overactive, and Huntington disease, where an expanded protein acquires toxic properties.

Three features complicate dominant pedigrees:

Autosomal recessive disorders

In autosomal recessive (AR) inheritance, disease requires two variant alleles. Affected people usually have unaffected heterozygous (carrier) parents; the pattern is horizontal, appearing in siblings rather than across generations; males and females are equally affected; and consanguinity raises the risk, because related parents are more likely to carry the same rare allele. Two carrier parents have, at each conception, a 1/4 chance of an affected child, 1/2 of a carrier and 1/4 of a noncarrier. Most recessive disorders result from loss of function, typically of enzymes, which explains why carriers (with 50 percent activity) are healthy. Many inborn errors of metabolism follow this pattern.

DisorderGene and proteinPatternKey features and genetics
Cystic fibrosisCFTR, chloride channelARThick secretions in lungs and pancreas; F508del is the most common variant (about 70 percent of alleles in people of Northern European ancestry)
Sickle cell diseaseHBB, beta globinARGlu6Val substitution; polymerized hemoglobin S sickles red cells; carriers protected against severe malaria
PhenylketonuriaPAH, phenylalanine hydroxylaseARPhenylalanine builds up and harms the brain; prevented by newborn screening and diet
Tay-Sachs diseaseHEXA, hexosaminidase AARGM2 ganglioside storage, neurodegeneration in infancy; carrier screening reduced incidence dramatically
Huntington diseaseHTT, huntingtinADCAG repeat expansion; adult onset movement disorder and dementia; anticipation
AchondroplasiaFGFR3ADGain of function; most cases new mutations, linked to paternal age
Marfan syndromeFBN1, fibrillin 1ADTall stature, lens dislocation, aortic root dilation; variable expressivity
Duchenne muscular dystrophyDMD, dystrophinXRFrameshift or nonsense variants abolish dystrophin; about one third of cases are new mutations
Hemophilia AF8, factor VIIIXRBleeding into joints and muscles; about 1 in 5,000 male births
Fragile X syndromeFMR1X linkedCGG repeat expansion silences the gene; most common inherited cause of intellectual disability
Leber hereditary optic neuropathyMitochondrial complex I genesMitochondrialSudden vision loss in young adults; maternal transmission only

X linked disorders

Because males are hemizygous for the X chromosome, a single recessive allele on the X is expressed in a male. In X linked recessive inheritance, affected people are mostly males; affected males are related through unaffected carrier females; there is no male to male transmission (fathers pass a Y to sons); and all daughters of an affected male are obligate carriers. A carrier mother has a 1/2 chance of passing the allele to each child, so half her sons are affected and half her daughters are carriers. Carrier females are usually healthy but can show symptoms because of skewed X inactivation. Duchenne muscular dystrophy, hemophilia A and B, red green color blindness and G6PD deficiency are examples. In X linked dominant disorders (such as X linked hypophosphatemic rickets), affected fathers pass the condition to all daughters and no sons, and females are affected about twice as often as males, usually more mildly.

Mitochondrial inheritance

The 16,569 base pair mitochondrial genome encodes 13 proteins of oxidative phosphorylation plus 22 tRNAs and 2 rRNAs. Mitochondria are inherited through the egg, so mitochondrial disorders show maternal inheritance: an affected mother can pass the condition to all her children, while an affected father passes it to none. Cells contain hundreds to thousands of mitochondrial genomes, and a mixture of normal and variant genomes (heteroplasmy) is common. Because the proportion can shift at random during egg formation (the mitochondrial bottleneck) and among tissues, severity varies greatly within a family, and symptoms appear when the variant fraction passes a tissue's threshold. Tissues with high energy demand (brain, muscle, retina, heart) suffer most, as in MELAS (mitochondrial encephalomyopathy, lactic acidosis and strokelike episodes) and Leber hereditary optic neuropathy.

Repeat expansions and anticipation

Several neurological disorders are caused by trinucleotide repeat expansions, which are unstable and tend to grow when transmitted. Longer repeats cause earlier onset and more severe disease, so the disorder appears earlier and worse in successive generations, a phenomenon called anticipation. The parent of origin matters: Huntington disease repeats expand mainly in male meiosis (juvenile cases usually inherit from the father), while fragile X and congenital myotonic dystrophy expansions occur through the mother.

Huntington disease: CAG repeats in HTT Normal26 or fewer Intermediate27 to 35 Reduced penetrance36 to 39 Full penetrance40 or more Normalunder 45 Intermediate45 to 54 Premutation55 to 200 Full mutationover 200 Expansion mainly in male meiosis; longer repeats give earlier onset Fragile X syndrome: CGG repeats in FMR1 Premutations expand to full mutations through female meiosis Increasing repeat number (zones not drawn to scale)
Figure 14.1 Repeat size ranges for two expansion disorders. Repeats in the intermediate range do not cause disease but can expand in the next generation; full mutations cause disease. In fragile X, a full mutation triggers methylation that silences FMR1.

Genomic imprinting and other exceptions

For a few genes, only the copy from one parent is expressed, because the other is silenced by DNA methylation laid down in the parent's germ line. This is genomic imprinting. The classic pair is on chromosome 15q11 to q13. Loss of the paternal contribution (a paternal deletion in about 70 percent of cases, or maternal uniparental disomy, two maternal copies and no paternal copy, in about 25 percent) causes Prader-Willi syndrome, with neonatal hypotonia, later overeating and obesity, and mild intellectual disability. Loss of the maternal contribution, specifically of maternal UBE3A expression in neurons, causes Angelman syndrome, with severe intellectual disability, seizures, absent speech and a happy demeanor. The same deletion produces two different diseases depending on which parent it came from.

Two more terms are frequently confused. Locus heterogeneity means variants in different genes cause the same phenotype (hearing loss from any of more than 100 genes; two deaf parents with recessive deafness in different genes can have all hearing children). Allelic heterogeneity means different variants in the same gene, such as the more than 2,000 known CFTR variants, cause disease. Pleiotropy means one gene affects several apparently unrelated traits, as FBN1 affects the eye, skeleton and aorta.

Study tip. Worked problem: Cystic fibrosis affects about 1 in 2,500 newborns in a population of European ancestry. Estimate (a) the frequency of the disease allele, (b) the carrier frequency and (c) the chance that two unrelated people from this population have an affected first child. Step 1: Affected people are homozygous, so q2 = 1/2,500 and q = √(1/2,500) = 1/50 = 0.02. Step 2: p = 1 - q = 0.98. Carrier frequency = 2pq = 2 × 0.98 × 0.02 = 0.0392, about 1/25.5, usually rounded to 1/25. (Shortcut: when q is small, 2pq ≈ 2q = 2/50 = 1/25.) Step 3: Risk of an affected child = (chance mother is a carrier) × (chance father is a carrier) × 1/4 = 1/25 × 1/25 × 1/4 = 1/2,500. Check: this equals the population incidence, as it must under random mating. Answer: q = 1/50; carrier frequency about 1/25; risk 1/2,500. Note that about 2pq/q2 = 2p/q ≈ 98 carriers exist for every affected person, so most disease alleles hide in carriers.
Study tip. For X linked recessive traits, the frequency of affected males equals q directly, because males have one X. If hemophilia A affects 1 in 5,000 males, q = 1/5,000, carrier females are about 2q = 1/2,500, and affected females are q2 = 1 in 25 million. This is why X linked recessive disease is almost entirely a disease of males.
Key point

Single gene disorders follow recognizable patterns: AD (vertical, male to male transmission, 1/2 risk to children), AR (horizontal, carrier parents, 1/4 risk, consanguinity), X linked recessive (mostly males, no male to male transmission) and mitochondrial (maternal, with heteroplasmy). Incomplete penetrance, variable expressivity, new mutations, anticipation from repeat expansions and imprinting explain pedigrees that do not look textbook perfect, and Hardy Weinberg converts disease incidence into carrier frequency.

Section 2Complex and multifactorial disease

From single genes to many

Most common diseases, including coronary artery disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma, schizophrenia, most birth defects and most cancers, run in families but do not follow Mendelian ratios. They are complex or multifactorial traits, shaped by many genetic variants of small effect acting together with environmental factors. Some, like height or blood pressure, are quantitative traits that vary continuously. Others, such as cleft lip or pyloric stenosis, are present or absent, yet still have a polygenic basis. The bridge between these two ideas is the liability threshold model.

The liability threshold model

Imagine that every person has an unseen liability to a disease, the sum of many genetic and environmental contributions. Because it is built from many small additive factors, liability is normally distributed in the population. Only people whose liability exceeds a threshold develop the disease. Relatives of an affected person share some of that person's risk alleles, so their liability distribution is shifted toward the threshold, and a larger fraction of them cross it.

Threshold General population Relatives of an affected person Affected: liability above the threshold Liability (genetic plus environmental factors)
Figure 14.2 The liability threshold model. Relatives share risk alleles, so their liability curve (dashed) is shifted toward the threshold and a larger fraction of them (shaded tail) are affected.

The model explains several characteristic features of multifactorial traits that distinguish them from Mendelian ones:

Heritability and twin studies

Heritability is the proportion of the variation in a trait, within a particular population and environment, that is due to genetic differences. Broad sense heritability (H2 = VG/VP) includes all genetic variance; narrow sense heritability (h2 = VA/VP) includes only additive variance, the part that predicts resemblance between parents and offspring. Heritability describes variation in a population, not the fraction of an individual's trait due to genes, and it can change when the environment changes. A trait can be highly heritable yet strongly changed by the environment: height is about 80 percent heritable, yet average heights rose substantially over the last century as nutrition improved.

Twin studies estimate genetic influence by comparing monozygotic (MZ) twins, who share essentially all their DNA, with dizygotic (DZ) twins, who share on average half, like ordinary siblings. For an either/or trait, we compare concordance, the proportion of twin pairs in which both twins are affected given that one is. If MZ concordance is much higher than DZ concordance, genes matter; if MZ concordance is well below 100 percent, the environment (or chance) also matters. For quantitative traits, we compare correlations, and Falconer's formula estimates h2 = 2(rMZ - rDZ).

ConditionMZ concordanceDZ concordanceInterpretation
Cleft lip with or without cleft palateAbout 40 percentAbout 4 percentStrong genetic contribution, important nongenetic factors
Type 1 diabetesAbout 40 percentAbout 5 percentStrong genetic effect (HLA region), environment needed
SchizophreniaAbout 45 percentAbout 15 percentHighly heritable, polygenic
Rheumatoid arthritisAbout 15 percentAbout 4 percentModerate genetic contribution
A single gene AD trait (for comparison)About 100 percentAbout 50 percentDetermined almost entirely by genotype
Study tip. Worked problem: For adult systolic blood pressure, the correlation between MZ twins is 0.80 and between DZ twins is 0.45. Estimate the narrow sense heritability, the shared environment effect and the unique environment effect. Step 1: Falconer's formula: h2 = 2(rMZ - rDZ) = 2(0.80 - 0.45) = 2(0.35) = 0.70. Step 2: MZ twins resemble each other because of shared genes plus shared environment, so rMZ = h2 + c2, and c2 = 0.80 - 0.70 = 0.10. Step 3: Everything that makes MZ twins differ is unique environment (and measurement error): e2 = 1 - rMZ = 1 - 0.80 = 0.20. Check: 0.70 + 0.10 + 0.20 = 1.00. Answer: about 70 percent of the variation in this population is attributed to additive genetic differences, 10 percent to shared environment and 20 percent to unique environment. Remember the assumptions: MZ and DZ twins share their environments to the same degree, and genetic effects are additive.

Finding the genes: genome wide association studies

Linkage analysis, which tracks a marker through large families, works well for Mendelian disease but poorly for common disease, where each variant adds only a little risk. The genome wide association study (GWAS) instead compares the frequency of hundreds of thousands to millions of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between many unrelated cases and controls. A SNP associated with disease is either causal or, more often, in linkage disequilibrium with a nearby causal variant. Because so many tests are performed, the conventional threshold for genome wide significance is p < 5 × 10-8 (roughly 0.05 divided by one million independent tests).

The strength of an association is reported as an odds ratio (OR): the odds of carrying the risk allele among cases divided by the odds among controls. Most GWAS hits for common diseases have odds ratios of only 1.1 to 1.5. Well known exceptions with larger effects include the APOE ε4 allele in late onset Alzheimer disease (roughly 3 fold risk for one copy and 8 to 12 fold for two) and variants in the HLA region in autoimmune disease.

Study tip. Worked problem: In a case control study, 400 of 1,000 cases and 250 of 1,000 controls carry a risk allele. Calculate the odds ratio. Step 1: Odds among cases = carriers/noncarriers = 400/600 = 0.667. Step 2: Odds among controls = 250/750 = 0.333. Step 3: OR = 0.667/0.333 = 2.0. (Cross product method: (400 × 750)/(600 × 250) = 300,000/150,000 = 2.0.) Answer: carriers have twice the odds of disease. An odds ratio of 1 means no association; below 1 means the allele is protective. Do not confuse odds with probability: 400/1,000 = 0.40 is a probability, while 400/600 = 0.667 is odds.

GWAS revealed that common diseases are highly polygenic: hundreds to thousands of loci each contribute a small effect, and most lie in noncoding regulatory DNA rather than in protein coding sequence. Together, identified SNPs often explain less of the heritability than twin studies predict, the problem of missing heritability, attributed to many variants with effects too small to detect, rare variants not captured on SNP arrays and gene by environment interactions. Summing a person's risk alleles, each weighted by its effect size, gives a polygenic risk score (PRS). People in the top few percent of a coronary disease PRS can have a risk comparable to carriers of a monogenic familial hypercholesterolemia variant. However, PRSs predict less accurately in populations that differ in ancestry from the GWAS participants, who have been overwhelmingly of European ancestry.

Gene and environment together

Environmental factors often interact with genotype. Folic acid supplementation before and early in pregnancy reduces the risk of neural tube defects (spina bifida, anencephaly) by roughly half or more; the general recommendation is 0.4 mg daily, with a higher dose (commonly 4 mg) for women who have had an affected pregnancy. Smoking multiplies the lung disease risk of people with alpha 1 antitrypsin deficiency. Phenylketonuria itself, a single gene disorder, shows that even a strongly genetic condition can be completely prevented by changing the environment (the diet).

Connection. Many countries fortify flour or grain with folic acid, and neural tube defect rates fell measurably after fortification began. It is one of the clearest public health successes rooted in the multifactorial model: a small environmental change shifted the whole liability distribution away from the threshold.
Key point

Common diseases are multifactorial. In the liability threshold model, risk alleles and environment add to a normally distributed liability, and disease appears above a threshold, which explains why recurrence risk is modest, falls steeply with relationship, and rises with more or more severely affected relatives and with the less often affected sex. Twin studies and Falconer's formula estimate heritability; GWAS find many small effect loci, reported as odds ratios, that can be combined into polygenic risk scores.

Section 3Genetic testing: diagnostic, carrier, prenatal and newborn screening

Screening versus diagnostic testing

Two words organize this section. A screening test is offered to a whole population or a large group with no particular reason for concern, to find the few people at increased risk; it is designed to be safe, cheap and sensitive, and a positive result must be confirmed. A diagnostic test is done in a person already suspected of having a condition and aims to give a definitive answer. Within genetic testing, the main purposes are:

Type of testWho is testedQuestion answeredExample
DiagnosticA person with signs or symptomsDoes this person have the condition, and what is the cause?Exome sequencing for a child with developmental delay
Predictive (presymptomatic)A healthy person with a family historyWill this person develop, or have increased risk of, a later onset disorder?Testing for the familial HTT expansion or BRCA1 variant
CarrierHealthy people, often before or during pregnancyDoes this person carry one recessive or X linked variant?Cystic fibrosis, spinal muscular atrophy, hemoglobinopathy screening
Prenatal screeningPregnant peopleIs this pregnancy at increased risk of a chromosome or structural problem?Cell free DNA screening, serum marker screening, ultrasound
Prenatal diagnosisPregnancies at increased riskDoes the fetus have the condition?Chorionic villus sampling, amniocentesis
Preimplantation genetic testingEmbryos from in vitro fertilizationWhich embryos are free of a familial variant or aneuploidy?Testing a biopsy of a few trophectoderm cells
Newborn screeningAll newbornsDoes this baby have a treatable condition that is silent at birth?Phenylketonuria, congenital hypothyroidism, cystic fibrosis
PharmacogeneticA person about to receive a drugWill this person metabolize or respond to the drug normally?CYP2C19 before clopidogrel, HLA-B*57:01 before abacavir

Laboratory methods

The method must match the type of variant suspected. A karyotype (G banded chromosomes) detects aneuploidy and large rearrangements of about 5 to 10 megabases or more, including balanced translocations. FISH uses fluorescent probes to detect specific deletions or count chromosomes rapidly in interphase cells. A chromosomal microarray detects copy number gains and losses down to tens of kilobases and is the first line test for unexplained developmental delay or multiple anomalies, but it cannot detect balanced rearrangements. Targeted variant testing looks for one known familial variant. Sequencing ranges from a single gene to a multigene panel, the exome (about 1 to 2 percent of the genome that codes for protein) or the whole genome. Repeat expansions require special methods (PCR sizing or Southern blot), and methylation tests detect imprinting disorders.

Sequencing a genome finds millions of variants, so interpretation is the hard part. Variants are classified on a five tier scale: pathogenic, likely pathogenic, variant of uncertain significance (VUS), likely benign and benign, using evidence such as population frequency, predicted effect on the protein, segregation in families, functional studies and whether the variant arose de novo. A VUS should not be used to make clinical decisions, and many are reclassified, usually as benign, as evidence accumulates.

Measuring test performance

Every test is judged by four numbers. Sensitivity is the proportion of affected people who test positive (true positives divided by all affected). Specificity is the proportion of unaffected people who test negative. These are properties of the test. The positive predictive value (PPV) is the proportion of positive results that are truly affected, and the negative predictive value (NPV) is the proportion of negative results that are truly unaffected. Predictive values depend heavily on how common the condition is in the people tested, and this is where intuition most often fails.

Study tip. Worked problem: A cell free DNA screen for trisomy 21 has a sensitivity of 99 percent and a specificity of 99.9 percent. It is used in a group of pregnancies in which the prevalence of trisomy 21 is 1 in 500. What is the PPV? Step 1: Imagine 100,000 pregnancies. Affected = 100,000/500 = 200; unaffected = 99,800. Step 2: True positives = 0.99 × 200 = 198. Step 3: False positives = (1 - 0.999) × 99,800 = 0.001 × 99,800 = 99.8, about 100. Step 4: PPV = 198/(198 + 99.8) = 198/297.8 = 0.665. Answer: about 66 percent; one in three positive results is a false positive despite 99.9 percent specificity. In a lower prevalence group (1 in 1,500), the same test gives 66 true and about 100 false positives, a PPV near 40 percent. This is why a positive screen is confirmed by diagnostic testing before any irreversible decision. (NPV here is 99,700.2/99,702.2, above 99.99 percent, because false negatives are so rare.)

Prenatal screening and diagnosis

The risk of a pregnancy with a chromosome aneuploidy rises with maternal age because of nondisjunction in aging oocytes; the risk of trisomy 21 at term is about 1 in 1,500 at age 20, 1 in 350 at age 35 and 1 in 100 at age 40. Today screening is offered to all pregnant people regardless of age.

Screening Diagnostic cfDNA screeningFirst trimester screenCVS AmniocentesisQuad screenAnatomy ultrasound from 10 weeks11 to 1410 to 1315 to 2015 to 2218 to 22 04812162024 Weeks of gestation
Figure 14.3 Approximate timing of prenatal screening (blue) and diagnostic procedures (red). Screening identifies pregnancies at increased risk; CVS and amniocentesis give definitive answers. Windows vary somewhat among guidelines.

Preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) tests one or a few cells from embryos created by in vitro fertilization, so that only unaffected embryos are transferred. It is used by couples who know they are at risk for a single gene disorder (PGT-M) or carry a structural rearrangement (PGT-SR), and it avoids decisions about an established pregnancy, though it requires IVF.

Carrier screening

Carrier screening identifies couples at risk before or early in pregnancy. Historically it was targeted by ancestry: Tay-Sachs screening in Ashkenazi Jewish communities, which reduced the incidence of the disease by more than 90 percent, beta thalassemia screening in Mediterranean populations and sickle cell screening in people of African ancestry. Ancestry is an imperfect guide in mixed populations, so many programs now offer pan-ethnic or expanded carrier screening covering dozens to hundreds of recessive conditions for everyone. Spinal muscular atrophy (deletion of SMN1, carrier frequency about 1 in 40 to 1 in 60) shows a pitfall: some carriers have two copies of SMN1 on one chromosome and none on the other, so a copy number test reads them as normal ("silent carriers").

Newborn screening

Newborn screening is the largest genetic testing program in the world. A few drops of blood from a heel stick, usually collected 24 to 48 hours after birth, are dried on filter paper and tested for treatable disorders that cause irreversible harm if not caught early. Tandem mass spectrometry detects dozens of amino acid, organic acid and fatty acid oxidation disorders from a single spot. Programs also include hearing screening and pulse oximetry for critical congenital heart disease.

ConditionWhat is measuredTreatment that prevents harm
PhenylketonuriaElevated phenylalanine (tandem mass spectrometry)Low phenylalanine diet started in the first weeks
Congenital hypothyroidismLow T4 and/or high TSHThyroid hormone replacement prevents intellectual disability
GalactosemiaGALT enzyme activityRemove galactose (milk sugar) from the diet
Cystic fibrosisImmunoreactive trypsinogen, then CFTR variants, confirmed by sweat chlorideEarly nutrition, airway clearance, modulator drugs
Sickle cell diseaseHemoglobin pattern by electrophoresis or HPLCPenicillin prophylaxis and vaccines prevent fatal infections
Severe combined immunodeficiencyLow T cell receptor excision circles (TRECs)Bone marrow transplant or gene therapy before infections
Spinal muscular atrophyAbsent SMN1 exon 7 by PCRGene replacement or splicing modifying therapy before symptoms
Connection. Newborn screening began with phenylketonuria, a disorder whose outcome changed from severe intellectual disability to normal development simply by finding affected babies early and changing their diet. Each added condition must meet the same test: a reliable screen, a real benefit from early treatment and a system to deliver it. Screening is pointless without follow-up, which is why programs track every positive result until it is confirmed or excluded.
Key point

Screening tests sort large groups by risk; diagnostic tests give definitive answers. The test method must fit the variant type: karyotype, FISH, microarray, targeted testing or sequencing, with variants classified from pathogenic to benign. Sensitivity and specificity describe a test, while predictive values depend on prevalence, so even an excellent screen has a modest PPV when a condition is rare. Prenatal options run from cfDNA and serum screening to CVS and amniocentesis, and newborn screening catches treatable disorders before harm occurs.

Section 4Genetic counseling and risk calculation

What genetic counseling is

Genetic counseling is a communication process that helps people understand and adapt to the medical, psychological and family implications of genetic contributions to disease. It integrates three things: interpreting family and medical histories to assess risk; educating about inheritance, testing, management, prevention and resources; and counseling to promote informed choices and adaptation. A typical session includes taking a three generation pedigree, confirming diagnoses from records, explaining the condition and its inheritance, calculating risks, discussing testing options with their benefits and limits, obtaining informed consent and, after testing, explaining results and arranging follow-up.

Traditionally, counseling has been nondirective: the counselor provides balanced information and supports the client's decision, especially about reproduction, rather than recommending a choice. In practice, when a result points to a clearly effective intervention (such as risk reducing surgery for a BRCA1 carrier or colonoscopy in Lynch syndrome), counselors give clear medical recommendations while respecting the person's autonomy. Counseling also attends to emotions such as guilt in a parent who "passed on" a variant, anxiety about uncertain results and the burden of telling relatives.

Mendelian risks and conditional probability

Many counseling risks come straight from Mendelian rules, but the most common error is to forget information that is already known. The classic example is the healthy sibling of a person with an autosomal recessive disease. Both parents are obligate carriers, so at conception the sibling had a 1/4 chance of being affected, 1/2 of being a carrier and 1/4 of being a noncarrier. But the sibling is known to be unaffected, so the affected outcome is eliminated, and the carrier risk is (1/2)/(1/2 + 1/4) = 2/3, not 1/2.

Study tip. Worked problem: Anna's brother has cystic fibrosis; Anna does not. She plans a family with Ben, who has no family history and comes from a population with a carrier frequency of 1/25. What is the risk that their first child will have CF? Step 1: Anna's carrier risk = 2/3 (she is unaffected, and her parents are obligate carriers). Step 2: Ben's carrier risk = 1/25. Step 3: If both are carriers, the risk to a child is 1/4. Step 4: Multiply the independent probabilities: 2/3 × 1/25 × 1/4 = 2/300 = 1/150. Answer: about 1 in 150, or 0.67 percent. Follow up: if Ben has carrier screening that detects 90 percent of carriers and is negative, his residual carrier risk falls to about 1/241 (see the Bayesian method below), and the couple's risk falls to 2/3 × 1/241 × 1/4, about 1 in 1,450.

Bayesian risk calculation

When there is additional information, such as unaffected children or a negative test, counselors use Bayes' theorem to combine it with the starting risk. The method is a short table with four rows:

  1. Prior probability: the risk based on the pedigree alone, for each hypothesis (for example, carrier and noncarrier).
  2. Conditional probability: the chance of the observed information (such as three unaffected sons) under each hypothesis.
  3. Joint probability: prior multiplied by conditional for each hypothesis.
  4. Posterior probability: each joint probability divided by the sum of all joint probabilities.
IIIIII ? Obligate carrier Two affected sons Consultand Three unaffected sons Carrier risk Prior: 1/2After 3 healthysons: Posterior: 1/9
Figure 14.4 A Duchenne muscular dystrophy pedigree for Bayesian analysis. The consultand's mother is a carrier, so her prior carrier risk is 1/2; her three unaffected sons are evidence that lowers it to 1/9.
Study tip. Worked problem (Figure 14.4): The consultand's mother is an obligate carrier of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The consultand has three unaffected sons. What is her carrier risk, and what is the risk that her next son will be affected? Step 1, prior: she inherited her mother's variant with probability 1/2, so P(carrier) = 1/2 and P(noncarrier) = 1/2. Step 2, conditional: if she is a carrier, each son has a 1/2 chance of being unaffected, so three unaffected sons have probability (1/2)3 = 1/8. If she is a noncarrier, the probability is 1. Step 3, joint: carrier 1/2 × 1/8 = 1/16; noncarrier 1/2 × 1 = 1/2 = 8/16. Step 4, posterior: P(carrier) = (1/16)/(1/16 + 8/16) = 1/9. Step 5: risk that her next son is affected = 1/9 × 1/2 = 1/18. Answer: carrier risk 1/9 (about 11 percent); next son 1/18 (about 5.6 percent). Simply multiplying 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/4 for a son ignores the evidence of three healthy sons and overstates the risk more than fourfold.
RowCarrierNoncarrier
Prior1/21/2
Conditional (3 unaffected sons)(1/2)3 = 1/81
Joint1/168/16
Posterior1/16 ÷ 9/16 = 1/98/16 ÷ 9/16 = 8/9

The same method handles negative carrier tests and late onset disease. For Ben in the cystic fibrosis problem, the prior is 1/25 carrier and 24/25 noncarrier; the conditional probability of a negative result is 0.10 if he is a carrier (the test misses 10 percent) and 1 if he is not. Joint: 0.004 and 0.96; posterior carrier risk = 0.004/0.964 = 0.0041, about 1/241. For Huntington disease, suppose the child of an affected parent is unaffected at an age by which half of carriers show symptoms. Prior: 1/2 and 1/2. Conditional probability of being unaffected: 1/2 if a carrier, 1 if not. Joint: 1/4 and 1/2. Posterior risk = (1/4)/(3/4) = 1/3.

Consanguinity and empirical risks

The coefficient of relationship is the proportion of genes two relatives share by descent: 1/2 for first degree relatives (parents, siblings, children), 1/4 for second degree and 1/8 for first cousins. The coefficient of inbreeding (F) of a child is the probability that both alleles at a locus are identical by descent; for the child of first cousins, F = 1/16. The background risk of a serious birth defect or genetic disorder in any pregnancy is about 3 to 4 percent; for first cousin parents it is increased by about 2 to 3 percentage points, mostly from autosomal recessive disease.

For multifactorial conditions there is no Mendelian formula, so counselors use empirical risks, observed recurrence figures from family studies. A useful rule (Edwards' approximation) estimates the risk to first degree relatives as roughly the square root of the population incidence: for a population incidence of 1/1,000, the first degree recurrence risk is about √0.001 = 0.032, or about 3 percent.

SituationRisk to the next child (or carrier risk)
Parent heterozygous for an AD disorder, full penetrance1/2
Both parents carriers of an AR disorder1/4 affected; unaffected sibling 2/3 carrier
Mother a carrier of an X linked recessive disorder1/2 of sons affected; 1/2 of daughters carriers
Father affected with an X linked recessive disorderAll daughters carriers; no sons affected
Child with an apparently new AD variant, parents unaffectedLow (about 1 percent), reflecting germline mosaicism
Isolated multifactorial defect (such as cleft lip)Empirical, typically 2 to 5 percent for siblings
Key point

Genetic counseling combines risk assessment, education and support, traditionally in a nondirective way. Risk calculations start with Mendelian probabilities but must use everything known: an unaffected sibling of a recessive patient has a 2/3 carrier risk, and Bayes' theorem (prior, conditional, joint, posterior) lowers or raises risks based on unaffected children, negative tests or age. Consanguinity raises recessive risks, and multifactorial risks come from empirical data.

Section 5Ethical, legal and social issues

Principles that guide genetic medicine

Genetic information is unusual medical information. It is predictive (it can forecast disease decades ahead), familial (a result about one person is also information about parents, siblings and children), permanent (it does not change) and increasingly identifying (a genome is a unique fingerprint). These features raise ethical, legal and social issues, often abbreviated ELSI, that go beyond those of most medical tests. Four standard principles of bioethics frame the discussion.

PrincipleMeaningGenetic example
AutonomyRespect for a person's right to make informed decisionsInformed consent before testing; the right not to know a result
BeneficenceActing for the person's benefitOffering surveillance or surgery to a person with a cancer predisposition
NonmaleficenceAvoiding harmNot reporting a variant of uncertain significance as if it were pathogenic
JusticeFair distribution of benefits and burdensEqual access to testing; diverse reference databases so results are accurate for everyone

Informed consent and the right not to know

Before a genetic test, a person should understand its purpose, what it can and cannot detect, the possible results (positive, negative, uncertain, unexpected), the implications for relatives, the possibility of findings unrelated to the original question, how samples and data will be stored and used, and the protections against discrimination. Because there is no cure for some conditions, the right not to know is also respected. Predictive testing for Huntington disease follows a careful protocol, with counseling before and after testing and time to reflect, because a positive result foretells an untreatable disease, and some at risk people choose never to be tested.

Testing children

Children cannot give consent themselves, so the guiding question is whether testing during childhood brings a medical benefit to the child. Testing is appropriate when a condition begins in childhood or when childhood interventions help: RET testing in families with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2 (preventive thyroid removal in early childhood) or APC testing in familial adenomatous polyposis (colonoscopy beginning around age 10 to 12). Predictive testing for adult onset conditions without childhood interventions, such as Huntington disease or BRCA1 variants, is generally deferred until the child can decide as an adult, preserving their future autonomy. Carrier testing of children is likewise usually deferred.

Confidentiality and the family

Because relatives share variants, a result can be lifesaving for them. Clinicians encourage patients to share results, often with a family letter, and offer cascade testing to relatives. Rarely, a patient refuses to tell relatives at high risk of a serious, preventable condition. Most professional guidance holds that confidentiality may be breached only in exceptional circumstances, when serious harm is likely, preventable and the relatives are identifiable, and only after attempts to persuade the patient have failed.

1/21/21/21/2 1/21/21/4 Proband Unrelated Red: testedpositive Numbers: chanceof carrying thefamily variant
Figure 14.5 Cascade testing for an autosomal dominant variant. Each first degree relative of the proband has a 1/2 chance of carrying it and the niece 1/4; testing her parent first tells whether she needs testing at all.
Study tip. Worked problem: A woman with colorectal cancer is found to carry a pathogenic MLH1 variant (Lynch syndrome, autosomal dominant). She has two siblings and two adult children. (a) How many of these four relatives are expected to carry the variant? (b) What is the chance at least one does? (c) Her sister tests negative; what is the risk to the sister's daughter? Step 1: Each first degree relative has a 1/2 chance (assuming one parent carried it). Expected carriers = 4 × 1/2 = 2. Step 2: P(none carries) = (1/2)4 = 1/16, so P(at least one) = 1 - 1/16 = 15/16, about 94 percent. Step 3: Before her mother's test, the niece's risk was 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/4. Her mother tested negative for the known familial variant, so the niece cannot have inherited it through her mother; her risk falls to the population background. Answer: (a) 2; (b) about 94 percent; (c) background risk only, so she needs no testing for this variant. Cascade testing is efficient because each negative result also clears that person's descendants.

Genetic discrimination and privacy

A major fear is that insurers or employers will use genetic information against people. In the United States, the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act (GINA) prohibits health insurers from using genetic information to set eligibility or premiums and prohibits employers from using it in hiring, firing or promotion. Its limits are frequently tested: GINA does not cover life insurance, disability insurance or long term care insurance, does not apply to employers with fewer than 15 employees, and does not protect people once they have a manifest disease (other laws, such as health care law that bars preexisting condition exclusions, help there). Other countries have different laws or voluntary agreements with insurers.

Privacy is harder to guarantee than it once seemed. Genomes cannot be truly anonymized: researchers have shown that names can sometimes be inferred by matching Y chromosome markers to surnames in genealogy databases. Direct to consumer (DTC) tests sell ancestry and some health information without a clinician, and consumer databases have been used in forensic genetic genealogy, identifying crime suspects through distant relatives who uploaded their own DNA. DTC health results can also mislead: a test that checks a few common BRCA variants misses most pathogenic variants, so a "negative" result is not reassuring, and raw data interpretations can have high false positive rates.

Secondary findings

Exome and genome sequencing can reveal variants unrelated to the reason for testing. Professional guidance recommends that laboratories offer to report pathogenic variants in a defined list of medically actionable genes (for example BRCA1, BRCA2, the Lynch syndrome genes, LDLR, and genes for inherited arrhythmias and cardiomyopathies), because early knowledge allows prevention. About 2 to 3 percent of people sequenced carry such a finding. Patients may opt out of receiving them, consistent with the right not to know.

Equity, history and the future

Genetics has a troubled history. The eugenics movement of the early twentieth century used crude ideas of heredity to justify forced sterilization laws and immigration restrictions, and these ideas fed into atrocities. Modern genetics emphasizes voluntary, informed individual choice, but critics note that prenatal screening raises questions about how society values people with disabilities. Equity remains a present concern: most GWAS participants have been of European ancestry, so variant databases and polygenic scores perform worse for others, and people of African ancestry more often receive uncertain results.

Gene therapy now treats several genetic diseases. Somatic therapies, which alter only the patient's cells, include viral vector gene replacement for spinal muscular atrophy and inherited retinal dystrophy, and ex vivo CRISPR editing of blood stem cells that reactivates fetal hemoglobin in sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia. Germline editing, which would change embryos and all their descendants, is a different matter. A widely condemned experiment in which embryos were edited and brought to birth led to near universal calls that germline editing not be used for reproduction while safety (off target edits, mosaicism) and ethical questions remain unresolved, especially since PGT already lets most at risk couples avoid passing on a variant.

Connection. Pharmacogenetic testing shows ELSI in everyday medicine. Screening for HLA-B*57:01 before prescribing the HIV drug abacavir virtually eliminated a dangerous hypersensitivity reaction, yet the same kind of genotype is informative about ancestry, so labs and clinicians must handle it with the same care as any other genetic result.
Key point

Genetic information is predictive, familial, permanent and identifying, so it calls for informed consent, respect for the right not to know and care with confidentiality. Children are tested only when childhood benefit exists; cascade testing extends benefit to relatives; GINA bars genetic discrimination in health insurance and employment but not in life, disability or long term care insurance. Secondary findings, DTC testing, privacy, equity and germline editing are the live issues in modern genetic medicine.

The chapter in one breath

  • Autosomal dominant traits show vertical and male to male transmission; autosomal recessive traits show carrier parents, 1/4 recurrence and links to consanguinity.
  • X linked recessive traits mostly affect males with no male to male transmission; mitochondrial traits pass only through mothers, with heteroplasmy.
  • Penetrance, expressivity, new mutations, anticipation and imprinting explain irregular pedigrees.
  • Hardy Weinberg turns incidence into carrier frequency: CF at 1/2,500 means q = 1/50 and carriers about 1/25.
  • The liability threshold model explains multifactorial recurrence patterns, including the Carter effect.
  • Heritability describes population variation; Falconer's formula gives h2 = 2(rMZ - rDZ).
  • GWAS find many small effect SNPs (p < 5 × 10-8, modest odds ratios) that sum into polygenic risk scores.
  • Testing may be diagnostic, predictive, carrier, prenatal, preimplantation or newborn; PPV depends on prevalence.
  • Counseling risk: an unaffected sibling of a recessive patient is a carrier with probability 2/3; Bayesian analysis updates risk with new evidence.
  • ELSI: informed consent, testing minors only for childhood benefit, cascade testing, GINA's limits, secondary findings, equity and germline editing.

Words worth knowing

TermWhat it means
ProbandThe affected person through whom a family comes to medical attention.
ConsultandThe person who seeks genetic counseling or testing.
PenetranceThe percentage of people with a genotype who show the associated phenotype.
ExpressivityThe degree or severity with which a genotype is expressed among affected people.
Germline mosaicismA variant present in some of a parent's germ cells but not in their blood or other tissues.
HemizygousHaving only one copy of a gene, as males do for X linked genes.
HeteroplasmyA mixture of normal and variant mitochondrial genomes in a cell or person.
AnticipationEarlier onset or greater severity in successive generations, usually from repeat expansion.
Genomic imprintingExpression of a gene from only one parent's copy because of parent specific methylation.
Uniparental disomyInheritance of both copies of a chromosome from one parent.
Locus heterogeneityVariants in different genes producing the same phenotype.
LiabilityThe combined genetic and environmental susceptibility to a multifactorial disease.
HeritabilityThe proportion of trait variation in a population attributable to genetic differences.
ConcordanceThe proportion of twin pairs in which both twins have a trait, given that one does.
Genome wide association study (GWAS)A study comparing genome wide SNP frequencies between cases and controls.
Odds ratioThe odds of exposure (such as a risk allele) in cases divided by the odds in controls.
Polygenic risk scoreA sum of many risk alleles, each weighted by effect size, estimating inherited risk.
SensitivityThe proportion of affected people correctly identified by a test.
SpecificityThe proportion of unaffected people correctly identified as negative.
Positive predictive valueThe proportion of positive results that are true positives; depends on prevalence.
Variant of uncertain significanceA variant without enough evidence to call it pathogenic or benign.
Cell free DNA screeningPrenatal screening that analyzes placental DNA fragments in maternal blood.
Bayesian analysisCombining a prior risk with conditional information to obtain a revised (posterior) risk.
Cascade testingTesting relatives of a person with a known variant, moving outward through the family.
Secondary findingA medically actionable result unrelated to the reason a test was ordered.

Check yourself

A pedigree shows an affected father with an affected son. Which inheritance patterns does this exclude?
Answer. X linked inheritance (a father gives his son a Y, not an X) and mitochondrial inheritance (fathers do not transmit mitochondria). Autosomal dominant inheritance fits best.
Two siblings with the same NF1 variant differ greatly in severity, and their unaffected father carries it too. Name the two concepts.
Answer. Variable expressivity (siblings differ in severity) and incomplete penetrance (the father has the genotype without the phenotype).
A paternal 15q11 to q13 deletion causes one syndrome; a maternal deletion causes another. Which is which, and why?
Answer. Paternal deletion causes Prader-Willi syndrome, maternal deletion causes Angelman syndrome. The region is imprinted: some genes are expressed only from the paternal copy and UBE3A only from the maternal copy in neurons.
An autosomal recessive disorder affects 1 in 10,000 births. Estimate the carrier frequency.
Answer. q2 = 1/10,000, so q = 1/100; carrier frequency 2pq ≈ 2 × 0.99 × 0.01 ≈ 1/50.
Pyloric stenosis is five times more common in boys. Whose sons have the higher risk: an affected mother's or an affected father's?
Answer. An affected mother's. Females need more liability to be affected, so an affected woman carries more risk factors to pass on (the Carter effect).
Twin correlations for a trait are 0.60 (MZ) and 0.40 (DZ). Estimate h2 and the shared environment effect.
Answer. h2 = 2(0.60 - 0.40) = 0.40. Shared environment c2 = rMZ - h2 = 0.20, leaving unique environment e2 = 0.40.
Why does the positive predictive value of a prenatal screen fall in a younger population even though sensitivity and specificity do not change?
Answer. Prevalence is lower, so true positives fall while false positives from the large unaffected group stay about the same, and a smaller share of positives are true.
The unaffected sister of a man with PKU wants to know her carrier risk. Her partner's carrier risk is 1/50. What is the risk their child has PKU?
Answer. 2/3 × 1/50 × 1/4 = 2/600 = 1/300. Her carrier risk is 2/3 because she is known to be unaffected.
A woman whose mother carries hemophilia A has two unaffected sons. What is her posterior carrier risk?
Answer. Prior 1/2 and 1/2. Conditional: (1/2)2 = 1/4 if a carrier, 1 if not. Joint: 1/8 and 1/2 (4/8). Posterior = (1/8)/(5/8) = 1/5.
A healthy 12 year old's father has Huntington disease. The parents want her tested now. What is the usual advice, and why?
Answer. Defer testing until she is an adult who can decide for herself. Huntington disease begins in adulthood and has no childhood intervention, so testing offers no medical benefit and would remove her own choice, including the right not to know.