← Chapter 14
Western Civilization · Chapter 14 · Section 5

1989: Structure, Contingency and the Choice Not to Shoot

Nobody predicted 1989 — not the CIA, not the Sovietologists, not the dissidents. Structural weakness made the collapse of the Soviet bloc possible; one contingent choice made it actual, and made it almost bloodless. Switch the pressures on and off, then decide what Moscow does when the crowds appear, and watch six countries answer.

Pressures on the system, 1975–1989

What does Moscow do when the crowds come out?

Since 1968 the answer had a name: the Brezhnev Doctrine — the socialist community had the right and the duty to intervene wherever socialism was threatened. Gorbachev quietly abandoned it. This is the single most consequential decision in the section.
Pressure on the bloc
 
 

What happens in each country

And afterwards?