← Chapter 13
Western Civilization · Chapter 13

The July Machine: Five Weeks to a World War

A pistol shot in Sarajevo did not have to become a war from the North Sea to the Black Sea. Take the chair in each capital for the six decisions of the July Crisis and watch the risk of a general European war climb — then switch the long-term pressures on and off to see how much was structure and how much was choice.
Vienna
1–5 July 1914Decision 1 of 6

Standing pressures, 1890–1914

All five were in place before anyone was shot. They are the baseline of the risk meter. Turn them off at any time to ask the counterfactual historians actually argue about: without these, would the same six decisions still have produced a continental war?

Risk of a general European war

40 / 100
From standing pressures40
From decisions taken0

Decision log

Your choices and what each one really did will appear here.