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Western Civilization · Chapter 3

Why the West Fell and the East Did Not

Both halves of the empire faced Huns, Goths, plague and civil war. One was replaced by successor kingdoms within eighty years; the other lasted until 1453. The most useful tool here is comparison, so set the five structural conditions below and watch how far your half of the empire gets. Load the west and the east back to back — then try to save the west by moving one lever.

Set the conditions

How far it gets

Survival timelineA rail of milestone years from 395 to 1453, filled up to the point your empire reaches.
Your empire lasts until

Which history are you writing?

Explanations you cannot put on a slider

Christianity drained civic energy (Gibbon, 1776). Few historians accept it: the eastern half was more thoroughly Christian and survived a thousand years longer.
Lead poisoning, soil exhaustion, malaria. Each is real and each is chronic — which is the problem. They were just as true in 200 CE, when the empire was fine.
Plague. The Antonine Plague of the 160s and the Plague of Cyprian in the 250s hit populations already strained, and demography is slow. Contributing, not sufficient.
476 itself. A convenient marker, not an event. Odoacer ruled Italy as a nominal subordinate of the emperor in Constantinople, the Senate kept meeting, and Justinian would reconquer much of Italy sixty years later.