An argument is a claim, the reason that supports it, and the evidence that supports the reason — and the piece almost every draft is missing is the one in the middle. Build the machine here, one part at a time. Swap a part and watch the diagnosis change, because a real reason is one a reasonable person could deny.
Pick a debate to build in
1 The sentence you want a reader to accept
2 Finish it with because…
3 Answer and how do you know?
4 Name one specific person who would deny your claim
If you cannot name a real, non-foolish person who disagrees, you do not have an argument — you have a summary with a confident tone.